Fais Scooter Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam Kev Pom Zoo: H1 2026 Raw Material Review & H2 2026 Outlook

Rau: Peb Cov Neeg Ua Haujlwm Muaj nuj nqis

Ua tsaug rau koj qhov kev cia siab thiab kev txhawb nqa txuas ntxiv mus. Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2026, lub ntiaj teb no hluav taws xob scooter kev lag luam muaj ib tug tseem ceeb raw khoom nqi volatility. Peb tau muab tso ua ke qhov kev pom ntawm kev ua lag luam no los pab koj zoo dua mus rau kev lag luam toj roob hauv pes thiab qhia koj cov tswv yim kev yuav khoom thiab tus nqi rau ib nrab xyoo.

I. H1 2026 Raw Material Review: A "Cov Cuab Yeej Nqis"

Thawj ib nrab ntawm 2026 tau pom qhov tsis tau muaj dua qhov kev nce qib ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom thoob plaws lub rooj tsavxwm rau kev lag luam hluav taws xob scooter.

Lub hauv paus hlau xws li txhuas thiab tooj liab pom tus nqi nce siab tshaj 40%, thaum cov yas resins tau nce ntau dua 80%-3. Hauv kev teb, Suav hluav taws xob loj ob- lub log tsheb xws li Yadea, NIU, Aima, thiab Tailg tau siv thoob plaws -tus nqi nce nqi pib txij lub Plaub Hlis 1, 2026, nrog nce ntawm RMB 200–300 toj ib chav.

Los ntawm sub- cov ntaub ntawv foundations, qhov cuam tshuam ncaj qha rau peb kev lag luam suav nrog:

Ntiaj teb no ripple teebmeem yog compounding lub siab.Raws li International Energy Agency's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, kev thov rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hloov pauv hloov pauv tseem ceeb -xws li lithium, tooj liab, cobalt, thiab graphite- tau nce nrawm mus txog xyoo 2025-2026, uas tau tsav los ntawm lub tsheb hluav taws xob, roj teeb cia, thiab kev xa hluav taws xob txuas ntxiv mus. Lithium xav tau nce ntawm qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo ntawm kwv yees li 25% hauv ob xyoos dhau los.

Cov khoom siv roj teeb cov nqi tau nce siab heev: lithium cov nqi dhia los ntawm kwv yees li $ 8 / kg mus txog ze li $ 24 / kg, thiab lithium - ion roj teeb hlwb tau dhau los 30-50% kim dua nyob ntawm cov sijhawm muab khoom. Ntawm qhov dav dav, nruab nrab ntawm Lub Ib Hlis 2025 thiab Lub Plaub Hlis 2026, cov hlau hauv paus suav nrog txhuas, tooj liab, thiab tin tau nce los ntawm kwv yees li ib - thib peb, nrog tooj liab ncav cuag cov ntaub ntawv siab.

Cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam qhia txog qhov cuam tshuam tiag tiag rau cov tuam ntxhab. Indian ob-wheel manufacturers tau tshaj tawm cov nqi nce ntawm lithium- ion hlwb, cov hlau nplaum hauv ntiaj teb tsis tshua muaj, nco chips, thiab cov hlau tseem ceeb, nrog Bajaj Auto kwv yees cov khoom lag luam nce siab tuaj yeem cuam tshuam cov nqi los ntawm 3.5-4.0% hauv peb lub hlis twg. Hero MotoCorp tau tshaj tawm daim nqi- ntawm- cov khoom lag luam nce siab nyob rau hauv ib tus lej siab, nrog tus nqi nce ntawm kwv yees li 2% twb tau ua lawm.

II. H2 2026 Outlook: Kev nyuaj siab mus ntxiv, Tab sis Kev Lag Luam Hloov Kho

📈 Nyob ze -Lub Sij Hawm Tus Nqi Them Siab Xav Tau Zoo

Ntau lub tuam txhab tau qhia txog cov nyiaj tau los hu tias cov nqi ntawm cov khoom siv tsis zoo yuav tsis yooj yim rau lub sijhawm ze. Ather Zog tau ceeb toom tias "kev cuam tshuam tsis yog tsuas yog cov khoom siv xwb, tab sis kuj yog tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw [yuav] nyob twj ywm inflated rau ib pliag," thiab sau tseg tias tus nqi ntxiv tuaj yeem ua raws. Bajaj Auto tau hais zoo ib yam tias kev nqis peev ntxiv tuaj yeem txiav txim siab yog tias kev nce nqi tseem nyob.

Qhov taw qhia tseem ceeb saib rau H2 2026:

Geopolitical Risks: West Asia ntsoog tau cuam tshuam kev thauj mus los thiab cov khoom lag luam xa khoom, nrog rau cov tuam txhab xws li Bajaj Auto qhia txog kev cuam tshuam kev thauj mus los cuam tshuam rau lawv lub peev xwm los pab kev xav tau los ntawm 10-15%. Txhuas, hlau, tooj liab, thiab cov hlau tsis zoo tau pom kev nce nqi vim qhov tshwm sim - coj cov khoom poob siab.

AI Infrastructure Squeeze: Kev hloov pauv ntawm cov txheej txheem tab tom pib- tsim peev txheej rau cov cim xeeb chips (DRAM, RAM) tau raug xa mus rau siab - cov ntawv thov AI. Cov nqi ntawm cov chips nco tau nce 2-4 zaug hauv qee kis, thiab cov khoom muaj rau tsheb-qib nco chips tau poob qis dua 50% hauv qee pawg. Qhov no yog qhov pom tsawg dua tab sis nce tus nqi tseem ceeb rau kev tsav tsheb hluav taws xob scooter hluav taws xob.

Roj teeb nqi Trajectory: Txawm hais tias tus nqi lithium ruaj khov nyob ze $ 24 / kg lossis txuas ntxiv lawv qhov kev nce siab yuav cuam tshuam ncaj qha rau cov nqi roj teeb - tus nqi loj tshaj plaws ntawm ib qho hluav taws xob scooter.

📊 Kev Loj Hlob Zoo Tshaj Plaws muab qhov tsis txaus

Txawm hais tias tus nqi pheej yig, qhov kawg - kev lag luam xav tau yog tsim chav rau kev nqus tus nqi:

• Ntiaj teb no Electric Scooter Market: Tus nqi kwv yees li ntawm $ 21.45 nphom hauv 2025, kwv yees kom ncav cuag $ 73.46 billion los ntawm 2035, loj hlob ntawm CAGR ntawm 13.1%
• Compact Electric Scooter Segment: Kwv yees li $ 853 lab hauv 2025, kwv yees kom ncav cuag $ 1.93 nphom los ntawm 2032 ntawm 12.4% CAGR
• Hluav taws xob scooters & maus taus ua ke: Npaj kom ncav cuag $ 37.13 nphom hauv 2026, xav tias yuav loj hlob ntawm 9.2% CAGR txog $ 63.64 billion los ntawm 2032
• Asia-Pacific tseem yog lub lag luam tseem ceeb, suav txog 75.7% ntawm cov nyiaj tau los thoob ntiaj teb, nrog rau Tuam Tshoj lub luag haujlwm rau kwv yees li 65-70% ntawm lub ntiaj teb hluav taws xob scooter tsim. Is Nrias teb tab tom tawm los ua qhov nrawm tshaj plaws - kev lag luam hauv lub tebchaws loj hlob, txhawb nqa los ntawm PM E-DRIVE kev pab cuam thiab kev tsim khoom hauv zos.

Cov neeg siv khoom nyiam yog hloov los ntawm "kev siv ua si" mus rau "kev siv mus los," tsav kev xav tau ntev dua, txhim kho kev nyab xeeb, thiab kev sib txuas ntse. Qhov kev ua tau zoo tshaj plaws no txhawb nqa tus nqi siab dua thiab txhim kho cov tuam txhab muaj peev xwm dhau los ntawm kev nce nqi.

⚠️ Cov Kev pheej hmoo tseem ceeb los saib xyuas hauv H2

• Regulatory Divergence: Cov kev lag luam sib txawv tswj hwm cov kev cai sib txawv ntawm kev txwv ceev, kev cai kaus mom hlau, kev tuav pov hwm, thiab kev nkag mus. Paris tau pov npav los xaus kev sib koom qiv e-scooters hauv 2023, qhia txog qhov kev lees txais pej xeem thiab kev tswj chaw nres tsheb tuaj yeem cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam. Lub UK tseem txwv tsis pub tus kheej muaj e-scooters ntawm txoj kev pej xeem, ua kom muaj kev tswj xyuas kom meej yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev loj hlob.
• Nyiaj Volatility: Euro thiab USD pauv tus nqi pauv tau dhau los ua qhov sib txawv tseem ceeb rau kev xa tawm -cov tuam txhab taw qhia, muaj feem cuam tshuam rau cov nqi tsaws thiab cov paj.
• Roj teeb kev nyab xeeb ua raws: Raws li e- kev nkag mus rau scooter loj tuaj, cov neeg tswj hwm tau nruj cov cai tswj kev nyab xeeb rau cov roj teeb lithium. Tuam Tshoj tus SAMR tau tshaj tawm cov roj teeb lithium kev nyab xeeb rau e-ob- log tsheb hauv xyoo 2024, thiab cov kev cai zoo sib xws tau tshwm sim thoob ntiaj teb. Cov nqi ua raws cai yuav nce.

III. Cov lus pom zoo

Muab cov nqi no ib puag ncig, peb pom zoo kom muaj cov kev ntsuas hauv qab no:

• Ruaj ntseg Ntev -Thiab Orders: Xauv hauv kev txiav txim ntawm cov nqi tam sim no rau H2 2026 tuaj yeem pab txo kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev nce nqi ntawm cov khoom siv ntxiv.
• Tsom ntsoov rau cov khoom siv hwm: High-kev ua tau zoo, muaj nuj nqi- cov qauv nplua nuj yog tus nqi qis dua- rhiab heev thiab muab cov txiaj ntsig zoo dua. Xav txog kev hloov koj qhov sib xyaw rau cov khoom lag luam nrog cov yam ntxwv siab, kev sib txuas ntse, thiab cov roj teeb zoo dua.
• Saib xyuas peb cov nqi hloov tshiab tsis tu ncua: Peb yuav txuas ntxiv taug qab txhuas, lithium, tooj liab, thiab lwm yam khoom siv tseem ceeb thiab ua kom koj paub txog kev hloov kho.
• Tshawb lub roj teeb hloov pauv kev sib raug zoo: Lub roj teeb-raws li-a- qauv kev pabcuam tau txais kev txhawb nqa, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv Is Nrias teb thiab cov tebchaws Esxias sab hnub tuaj Asia, vim nws txo cov nqi ua ntej thiab qhov chaw nyob muaj kev ntxhov siab. Cov khoom sib xws nrog swappable roj teeb ecosystems yuav qhib kev muag khoom tshiab.

Daim ntawv ntxiv: Cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb Snapshot

Yog tias koj muaj lus nug txog kev txheeb xyuas saum toj no, lossis yog tias koj xav tau cov ncauj lus kom ntxaws thiab cov lus hais rau koj cov lus txiav txim tshwj xeeb, thov tsis txhob yig tiv tauj kuv ncaj qha.

Nyob zoo,

[Mona]
Kukirin Factory Director

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